Archive for December, 2009

Dec 21: Bayside: It's lonely at the top.

As predicted over the past few weeks, the very pointy end of the Brighton market has failed to deliver. A swag of top end properties remains unsold despite serious amounts of vendor’s money being spent on marketing and the very best efforts of some of Bayside’s finest agents.

The tom toms are telling us that although reasonable offers have been made by buyers, in many cases the response from sellers has been less than reasonable; with some agents grumbling about clients getting ahead of the market.

A sample of those still to call on the titles office:

  • 15 Dudley Street. Expecting over $5 million and a rumoured offer rejected in the very, very high $4′s. Patience may not be a virtue.
  • 22 Glyndon Avenue. Initially expecting over $9 million for what is essentially land only. The market is probably closer to $7 million.
  • 319-323 St Kilda Street. Initial hope was for over $8 million. While hope springs eternal, time may run out.
  • 184 The Esplanade. Agent was “confident” of achieving at least $8 million. So far, buyers are not on the same page.
  • 142-142a The Esplanade. Paid $4.1 million back in April. Three bidders at the recent auction. The highest bidder ($4.96 million) invited inside and asked to pay more. Politely declined. Any takers?
  • 316 St Kilda Street. Originally asking around $7 million. Some months later we understand something close will tempt.
  • 23 Cosham Street. Initially up for private sale at around $7 million, the recent auction saw the property passed in to the auctioneer at around $5 million. Offers will be considered.
  • 52 South Road. Chasing $15 million. The word locally is that an offer a little under that mark was recently rejected.

All notable wallflowers. Those invited onto the floor during the last dance of the real estate year included:

Meanwhile, in Brighton East:

  • 40 Heathfield Road. Passed in on a vendor bid at $1.6 million. Reserve $1.79 million in one of the few auctions in Brighton E over the weekend.
  • 11 Plantation Avenue. Expressions of interest suggested interest at $2.185 million. Sold.
  • 42 Glencairn Avenue, a contemporary house on 700 sq m, sold very privately for $2.23 million.

Elsewhere in Bayside, most concerns were about Christmas parties and shopping.

Coming weeks will see us pursuing anything but real estate over the Christmas break. Thank you for your attention over the past year and we hope your next will be peaceful, cheerful and prosperous.

Damian Taylor.

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Dec 14: And now, the end is near…

According to Google Maps, 10 hours and 12 minutes and 881km of the Hume is what separates Melbourne and Sydney.

That’s not all, folks. Consider AFL and NRL, restaurants and theatre, beaches and not. And … and a lot of stuff.

Also, underlined and underlined and underlined this year has been the differences in top-end property markets.

Differences? Sydney is more about display, Melbourne about security. In Sydney, living in a palace is important, even if a king’s ransom is owing on it. In Melbourne, you can get away with six bedrooms and four bathrooms and underground garaging for only half a dozen cars.

In short, SYD is geared, MEL less so.

That translates to confidence or lack of when the going gets rocky; and when the going got rocked by the GFC, confidence drained in Sydney. While things also became a little pale in Melbourne, the shock was not as deep and the recovery was robust.

Beyond robust. At times it defied logic.

Which raises the next question: Where is the demand coming from? Despite the hype of Asian influences, it is largely organically grown. While it’s true that mainland China has underpinned some suburbs, there is only faint Chinese interest in period houses; and feng shui rules out many others.

And, yes, there are still many unsatisfied buyers waiting out there; but at the top end they’re not living in hovels so most can afford the wait. Quality is still the decider.

This year also nicely demonstrated the estate agent’s “sheep” theory:

Herd of sheep at a gate: one goes through, they all go through; one stops, all stop. That applies to buyers and sellers.

Last December there was almost nothing on offer at the top end, even less of quality and hardly a bid to be seen. This month only the lemons had fewer than three or four hands in the air.

Will it continue? Probably.

It’s likely there will be few transactions early in the new year and that may suggest a cooling market, but lack of stock and continued pent-up demand suggests that prices should again begin to rise.

And now it’s Christmas. But not all are tidings of joy. Read between the lines and you’ll find auctions which ended as pass-ins and a number of expressions-of-interest campaigns that raised no more than a yawn.

And, while we’re here:

Vendors, often encouraged by cheer squads of estate agents, are optimists. Those who have bought elsewhere (optimists do that) may find Santa brings them a hard dose of reality.

And so we end a weird year. Faltering start, extraordinary end. Some of the more unsavoury industry practices such as under-quoting brought to (limited) account; but still a long way to go to an open and clear industry.

And it could be. And it would make life so much easier for everyone.

We’ll work on it.

Here’s hoping your break is cheerful; and your next year even more so.

David Morrell

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Bayside: doing it its way.

After the beachfront and the Golden Mile, Middle Brighton’s primest location is between the beach and Church Street. Last weekend, the record for land prices was both set and broken; underlining again the strength of demand among private house builders.

16 Wellington Street, a compact allotment of 623 sq m (6705 sq ft) defied initial expectations of up to $2 million and under relentless competition was finally knocked down for $2.3 million. For a couple of hours, that was the record: $3691/sq m or $343/sq ft. About 15% higher than the previous high in the area.

And then came 23 Albert Street, just around the corner. On 740 sq m with a graciously tired old timber house, it was about to be knocked down at $2.7 million when a last minute knockout bid was made of another $50,000 and it was all over red rover. This just shaded the earlier record and has put the new benchmark at $3716/sq m or $345/sq ft.

Apart from the stunning price paid in both instances was the fact that at least four bidders competed at each auction; meaning there are another six disappointed buyers presumably still looking for new house sites. That’s a complete about-face from earlier in the year when a chook raffle in Church Street attracted vastly more interest than any land auction.

On the topic of land, two adjoining older houses were offered at 81 and 83 Carpenter Street, each on about 630 sq m. Number 83 (on the corner of Collins Street) was offered first with the auctioneer at pains to point out that the successful buyer of Number 83 would be given first dibs on 81 at a generously discounted figure $150,000 less (yes, less). The auction proceeded and 83 was knocked down for $1.55 million. In turn, 81 should have realised $1.4 million, but it seems the purchaser out-negotiated the agents and secured the second property for $1.375 million.

Highest price paid on the day was at 98 Were Street, an extensively renovated and extended period house on 910 sq m with a swimming pool. It realised $3.75 million.

219 Church Street was reported as sold prior to auction at $2.54 million and 1 Anne Crescent went the same way for $1.61 million. The same agent claimed these two each sold prior to a scheduled auction, but we cannot find any evidence that they were in fact listed for auction. We have spent eons trying to rid the scene of dummy bidders and now we have phantom auctions?

Among the positive results under the (real) hammer were 34 Montclair Avenue at $1.84 million, 500 New Street at $1.57 million and 138 North Road at $1.265 million.

But it wasn’t all smiles in Brighton. Several pricier properties are still on the shelf.

10 Esplanade Avenue, a “cutting edge cool” property has been somewhat blunted: passed in at $2.8 million, $300,000 under reserve.

11 Anne Crescent, a new house on 670 sq m failed to excite. Passed in on a vendor bid of $2.4 million with a later offer of $2.5 million and no news yet as to the reserve.

A near new townhouse at 2/30 Grosvenor Street is still a work in progress: passed in at $1.925 million with a reported later offer of $2 million and still ground to cover with a vendor who is asking $2.2 million.

And no joy at another “cutting edge ” town house at 31 Whyte Street where the most excitement was a vendor bid of $1.35 million. The reserve is $1.45 million.

Brighton East had mixed results: some hits, several misses.

13 Curley Street was the priciest result on the day: $1.81 million

80 Canberra Grove sold for $1.335 million

81 Union Street went unreported, for good reason. A charming red brick period house, comfortable and with extension potential on a 840 sq m northerly rear facing garden was quoted at $980,000-$1,050,000 throughout the campaign. Despite this writer on several occasions protesting at the obvious underquote, the estimate remained as it was and surprise, surprise, it sold for $1.2 million. This was one of very many underquotes we and our clients have had to put up with in recent weeks despite the bluster from CA and the REIV to impose serious financial penalties to deter the practice. The recently publicised prosecution and conviction of an agent found guilty of deliberately misleading buyers on price where a fine of $1,000 was imposed does nothing to persuade others to clean up their act. $1,000 would hardly cover the beemer’s parking meter money.

17 Florence Street, Brighton East got to $1.45 million with another later offer (they’re popular this weekend) of the same amount and again we are left to guess the reserve.

6 Parkview Road didn’t excite: vendor bid $1.25 million, reserve $1.34 million.

13 Curzon Street, passed in some weeks ago, has found favour with a buyer paying a respectable $2.6 million.

81 Comer Street sold privately, land value only: $1.285 million.

Beaumaris had equal numbers of pass-ins and sales:

84 Tramway Parade, a 10 room house on a generous 1022 sq m sold for $1.65 million.

31 Clonmore Street Not a bid to be had and, now, an asking price of $1.565 million.

Neighbouring Black Rock recorded a result at 7 Third Street. A six room house on over 1100 sq m, it sold for $1.55 million.

Hampton and Sandringham were relatively quiet.

Highest result was 10 The Avenue, Hampton. A timber house of eight main rooms and on 700 sq m, it sold at auction for $1.601 million

9 Carolyn Street, Hampton was sold prior to auction for $1.23 million.

49 Fernhill Road, Sandringham has finally sold for $1.875 million, three weeks after it was passed in on a vendor bid of $1.9 million with a reserve of $2.1 million.

Bentleigh had 18 auctions listed for the weekend and managed to clear all but four thus maintaining its position as the most efficient auction suburb in the Bayside. The standout was in East Bentleigh: a renovated seven room weatherboard house on 620 sq m at 17 May Street. As an early Christmas present for the owners, a generously spirited buyer stumped up an impressive $1.285 million.

A good deal less cheery was 15 Daley Street, Bentleigh. The auctioneer’s pass-in price of $1.2 million was upped to $1.315 million by a later offer, but it’s still shy of the reserve of $1.4 million.

We will be back next Monday to report on the final auction weekend of the year and to let you know the fate of the handful of serious top end expressions of (dis)interest campaigns closed or due to close this week.

Damain Taylor

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Dec 7: Bubble, balloon, bull-run?

Alan Kohler, in today’s Business Specatator: “… the US dollar is weak and central banks everywhere else are being forced to accommodate US monetary policy to try to stop their currencies appreciating against the dollar. Bubbles in real estate and shares are inevitable in those circumstances.”

The sense we’re getting at the coalface is that we’re now in a bubble; and, like the great procession of bubbles that came before, that it can’t last.

Symptoms? Vendors with expectations beyond great. Purchasers panicked into meeting them.

That’s a sitcom without a script. Or sense. And everyone’s an expert; even if their views are based on data that is months out of date (another of Mr Kohler’s long-held concerns).

Sour grapes? Us?

Yes. Over the past week we have been underbidders on several significant properties where we simply could not make the numbers add up. There’s land value, there’s improvement value and there’s oomph value. Add them and you get to a number which reasonably approximates real value. If you then bid against those who can’t do the sums or simply ignore them you’ll be playing a game with no rules.

Sorry. We won’t take our clients there.

(Why would we, when there are still some gems which are virtually overlooked and some vendors who can’t see these rises being sustained – so while it’s not easy, it’s still possible to buy well.)

Saturday. Land auction at 177 Kooyong Road. Good land, deceased estate, around 15,000 sq ft. On the market at $4.9 million and sold for $6,190,000. No-one else has gone near $350/sq ft in Kooyong Road, yet this ended up at $410/sq ft with three bidders. Bubble, balloon or $1.2 million free kick?

2/122 Anderson Street, South Yarra. Six weeks ago this was offered for private sale at around $760,000. No takers. The owner cleaned it up, farewelled the tenant, put in display furniture and – bubble or balloon – it sold on Saturday with seven bidders taking it to $905,000. Some paint job!

Gems?

29 The Righi, South Yarra, 8 year-old house on 5,000 sq ft. An expressions of interest campaign raised none and, as usual, left seller and agent not knowing what to do. Suddenly, $4,250,000 is put on the table and the game is on with a realistic vendor and the year’s first lounge-room auction. All over at $4.8 million.

And then there’s our love affair with Ian Carmichael of Bennison Mackinnon. We bought a house. He didn’t know we bought it on behalf of the tenant. He’s crying foul. Our client is crying all the way to the bank. We’re taking a collection; with luck we’ll raise enough to buy Mr Carmichael his very own hankie.

And yet more perspective from Mr Kohler: “… bubbles can be hard to pick: ‘bubble’ is often just the name someone applies to a rally that they missed; if you’re on it, it’s a bull market.”

David Morrell

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Bayside: It’s lonely at the top

Buyers were out in force in Bayside this weekend with plenty of action from Elwood through to Mentone as the opportunities to secure a property this year are fast dwindling.

Low- to mid-level properties are being hoovered up despite a third interest rate rise in as many months and with the guarantee of futher rises in the new year. The pent-up demand that flowed from nothing happening in 2008 will clearly spill over into 2010; although there appears to be signs of herd mentality driving some buying decisions and this is reflected in some over-the-top prices being paid.

Mentone and Parkdale are two adjoining beachside suburbs that have been in the shadow of their more affluent northern neighbours but are now finding increased favour from buyers priced out of Hampton, Sandringham and, to a lesser degree, Beaumaris. Mentone recorded 9 sales from 10 auctions on the weekend and still offers value for money in this very heated market.

Beaumaris and its smaller cousin, Black Rock, also had a very busy week. Between them there were 12 sales from 14 offered.

The standout was a sale prior to auction at 4 Tramway Parade, Beaumaris; one of the prime streets in the suburb. A comfortable but dated beach-style property of 11 main rooms and on a substantial 2070 sq m allotment, it sold for $2,880,000.

The highest priced auction in Black Rock was 3 Glenmore Crescent. It sold for $1.64 million with 8 Stanley Street close by at $1,525,000.

Beach Road real estate continues to struggle to attract auction bidders with 2/366 Beach Road passing in at $1.74 million. A later offer of $1.75 million failed to convince the vendor. The asking price is $1.82 million.

Hampton recorded eight sales from nine auctions; most in the very popular sub-$750,000 range. Highest price on the day was 44 Imbros Street, an 8-room cal bung on stock standard land of 624 sq m. It sold for $1.56 million.

Perhaps reflecting its tightly held nature, but still surprising in a prime beach-side suburb in a busy time of year, Sandringham had only one auction scheduled. The solitary offering was 12 Sandringham Road and it’s still tightly (if unwillingly) held by the owner after being passed in at $890,000. A later offer of $920,000 was not enough. The owner is asking $990,000.

Brighton’s stats looked healthy: 16 of 20 sold at auction or soon after but, again, all the action is at levels up to but not exceeding the median for the suburb. Middle to top end properties are not quite getting there.

Evidence? 13 Wellington Street, a solidly built but dated brick house on just under 800 sq m on the corner of Sussex Street. The auctioneer was at pains to point out to the crowd that he couldn’t value it and didn’t really know what it was worth. Seems that message stuck: a solitary bidder offered $3.5 million before it was passed in. Presumably knowing no more than they did before the auction, the agents did not publish an asking price or reserve.

However there was action at 142-142a The Esplanade. It’s a pair of maisonettes on land totalling 930 sq m and overlooking the beach with excellent water views, rear access via Wellington Street and ripe for redevelopment. Last sold in April this year for $4.1 million, three bidders competed until it was passed in (after two referrals ) at a whopping $4.96 million. Apparently further discussions ensued with an offer made a tickle over $5 million, but still no sold sign on the board. The reserve is anybody’s guess but even in this hot market, that is a huge result for no sale.

Several pass-ins from the past few weeks are now being cleared up with 32 Cosham Street sold for $2.9 million and 65 Cochrane Street at $1.725 million.

A big, big auction weekend coming up will really test buyers’ resolves. While low- to mid-market properties will continue to hold up, it’s likely that a number of trophy and other top end properties which are concluding expressions of interest campaigns this week will still be for sale next week.

Time, that most persuasive of raconteurs, will tell.

Damian Taylor

M&K in the News:

Rate rises fail to hammer auctions – Australian Financial Review (subscription required) ? Mr Morrell said that there had been a limited supply of quality housing stock available all year and surprisingly little fallout from the global financial crisis…

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