Archive for September, 2009

Sept 21: Top end breaks records. Not.

For a couple of hours on Saturday – long enough to make it into Sunday’s papers – the REIV’s website was reporting the highest price paid at auction was $7,285,000 for a four-bedroom house in (drumroll) Ashwood!

Ashwood?

It seems a decimal point’s slip was showing.

In fact, in what the REIV was touting as another 80%+ clearance rate weekend, the highest number reached at auction was $2,810,000 for 64 Canterbury Road, Middle Park; so the true top end simply wasn’t tested.

That said, the sub-$3 million sector did do well.

5/50 Marne street, South Yarra a good older-style ground floor apartment with a AAA address was taken to an incredible $1,900,000 by a feeding frenzy of 8-10 bidders.

An hour later, at 103 Canterbury Road, Toorak, another frenzy was composed of would-be developers who went to war over a small (3,000 sq ft) block of land crying out for a townhouse. It sold for $1,520,000 which is over $500 a foot in B- or C-grade Toorak and a record price for a less than great position.

49 Chrystobel Crescent, Hawthorn sold for more than it should: $2,720,000

But it wasn’t all beer and skittles. Albert Park, that Cinderella of suburbs, got belted again:

And then there was 5 Mary Street, Hawthorn. A renovated Victorian, it sold 18 months ago for a little over $2.3 million and had recently  been offered for private sale at $2.7 million. Over the weekend, it went for an unreported $3,050,000; which serves to underline how the market has moved.

If the top end was pale, expressions-of-interest campaigns are becoming terminal. Both agents and buyers are losing interest and it’s not hard to see why: so few succeed. We’d suggest that’s because they make transactions which should be out in the open transactions of mystery. No-one understands the ground rules and neither side can be really sure what is going on. (In fact, they usually signal vendors who want too much and agents who want four weeks to knock some sense into them.)

And then …

Agents just being agents provides endless fun, but when they jump the fence and start bidding, they’re hilarious. Over the weekend there they were, a roving comedy festival so desperate to buy in the hope that their deeply grateful clients would in turn give them something to sell. Over-pay? Sure. It’s not their money.

What’s next?

For the next two weeks, nothing. There’s a football match to be decided and the school holidays hiatus. And then it’s on for all comers.

Vendors who have been on the sidelines are expected to come out in numbers – they have been reluctant to sell when there’s so little to buy – and stock levels should begin to soar over the next three weeks. This could be good for buyers.

Expats and inter-staters who come for the Spring Carnival have been known to pick up a property while they’re here. That’s another incentive for vendors.

And the big one: There are just 10 selling weeks left before Christmas. If people have not bought/sold before then, the real market doesn’t recommence until March and that makes it unlikely they’ll be moving before June.

Get your skates on.

David Morrell

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MEL vs World. MEL wins.

After three weeks studying property markets on the other side of the world (rumours of visits to churches, museums and cultural institutions offering alcoholic life-support are grossly exaggerated), has shown that Melbourne is not on the same planet when it comes to residential sales activity and prices.

Agents in the UK and Ireland simply don?t believe the volume of transactions being experienced in Melbourne and our consistent 80% plus auction clearance rates. One leading agency in Dublin had not sold a single property in the past three months. Many agents in the UK are planning to emigrate to Australia. You Have Been Warned.

The housing situation in Europe is not much better and the US is still a basket-case. The only buyers in London are (you guessed it) wealthy Chinese and Russians taking advantage of bargains in usually super-expensive blue chip suburbs. Agents are confounded when they hear our official interest rate is at a comparatively lofty 3% compared to the Bank of England?s paltry .5% (with talk of decreasing to .25%), yet we still have buyers clamouring for properties and in many instances paying a premium. Gravity continues to be defied.

Having said that, Asian markets are faring a deal better. Sometimes unbelievably so.

A recently-completed penthouse of 360 sq m on the Kowloon side in Hong Kong has had its asking price increased to $300,000,000 HK. That’s about AU$45,000,000 and still the enquiries flowed. Most buyers are wealthy locals and cashed-up mainland Chinese.

So what do we take from this into own backyard ?

How about a little caution for a start.

Don?t overpay or over-commit on the funding side and always, always, buy as prime a property as you can. When the current excitement subsides, and subside it will, the last thing you need is to be living in a lemon.

The local news …

In Bayside, the highest price achieved at auction over the past week was for 299-305 New Street, Brighton. Quick history lesson: “Finchal, at 299-305 New Street Brighton is of historical significance. The house was the home of architect John Grainger, and the birthplace of Percy Grainger, noted pianist, conductor and composer. It is also of note as a particularly early Brighton house.” – which comes from its heritage listing. It’s a local landmark, a run-down single level Victorian on a generous 1596 sq m. It last sold at auction in July 2007 for a surprisingly high $3.28 million but came back to earth with a thump on Saturday: knocked down for $2.81 million.

A vacant allotment at 1 Holmwood Avenue, Brighton sold for an expected $1.95 million which equates to $228 sq ft (or $2460 sq m). It is unusually wide, with a 70 ft frontage, and won?t be impacted as severely as some are by Bayside?s arcane planning regulation C 2.

134 Male Street, Brighton on a modest 386 sq m site realised $1.57 million

75 Halifax Street, a newish townhouse on a more modest 338 sq m was reported as sold with the price undisclosed. (It went for $1.73 million.)

2 Lawrence Street on an even more modest 330 sq m sold for $1.405 million.

The last apartment in Lou Abrahams? Golden Mile development at 8/9 St Ninians Court sold before auction for (also undisclosed) $3.25 million.

357 New Street is a new townhouse built by Stewart Lowe. It passed in at $1.2 million against a reserve of $1.29 million.

843 Hampton Street an eight-room family home on 1040 sq m. It was passed in on the auctioneer?s bid of $1.65 million. A real offer of $1.675 million was rejected. They’re hanging out for $1.75 million.

7 Kilrush Street has finally found a new owner for $3.2 million in a privately transacted sale.

114 Dendy Street, land-only, sold for exactly $2 million. It’s 1249 sq m and that works out to $149 sq ft. Sounds good.

19 Hilton Street, Beaumaris sold for $1.685 million

22-24 Dreadnought Street, Sandringham is still waiting. Brick, 14 main rooms, 1330 sq m. The vendor bid $1.9 million. The vendor wants $2.05 million. Stay tuned.

Hampton’s day was mixed:

And so to Bentleigh, whose star continues to shine. 16 from 18 on the day speaks volumes about this suburb’s continuing popularity and its prices continue to defy gravity. $1.621 million in Marston Street? Yes.

Next weekend will see us elsewhere. We will be comparing notes with a certain D Morrell who persists in delusions regarding the prospects of the Geelong Football Club when any person with the slightest knowledge of the Australian game knows that this is the year of the Saints.

Preserve us.

Damian Taylor

M&K in the news:

High-end homebuyers still happy to pay up The Australian Financial Review (subscription required)  David Morrell said … “If you want to buy a house for $10 million plus in Melbourne, you can’t. There’s nothing for sale.”

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High-end homebuyers still happy to pay up
The Australian Financial Review – Sept 21 (subscription required) – David Morrell said … “If you want to buy a house for $10 million plus in Melbourne, you can’t. There’s nothing for sale.”

Sept 14: Statistics? Think of a number

Last weekend, according to the REIV, “… was one of the strongest auction weekends this year…”. They reported 707 auctions and a clearance rate of 83%

Wait a day and Australian Property Monitors reports that the market is losing steam, Melbourne properties sold were down 43% and a clearance rate of 73.7%

No wonder the people we meet can’t tell what’s really happening.

Our view of the top end? Last weekend saw some trees blow over the train tracks. Nothing derailed, but there were some almighty thumps.

Signs of (welcome) caution:

8 Verdant Avenue, Toorak. A good Gillespie townhouse in need of a tidy up, but it still ticked a lot of boxes. Many in the real estate fraternity thought it had the potential to reinvent the Richter scale; a bidders’ bloodbath was forecast. The auction got underway with a vendor bid of $2.8 million and six serious bidders. And then … And then the auctioneer started calling for rises of just $10,000 and sucked the life out of his own show. It stalled at $3 million, then struggled on to sell at $3,305,000. A month ago it would have screamed past $3.5 million. Are we witnessing an outbreak of sense?

6 Kensington Road, South Yarra, a renovated Victorian on 10,000 sq ft and, yes, it has some overlooking issues. But where were the crowds? Where was the energy? It limped to $3,860,000 with bids as painful as tooth extractions, then sold later for a shade over $4 million.

And some OK results. Not the runaways of past weeks, more value buying:

And then there is The China Syndrome. The notion that when a US nuclear reactor melts down, it will burn its way right through the earth and eventually emerge in China.

Our China Syndrome is home-delivered. There is now significant Asian buyer interest in top-end Melbourne houses; both at auctions and in off-market sales. Why? As one client suggested: “Because Australia has become Asia’s Switzerland and Melbourne, not Sydney, is Lake Geneva.” It’s a trend which has been emerging, particularly in Boroondara and Stonnington; with particular interest in new houses or land close to good schools – there’s not much appetite for period homes.

While the enthusiasm is encouraging, it can overlook current prices or comparable sales. We have been known to advise caution.

And now we enter … interesting times.

School holidays loom, there’s the football finals and the Cup Carnival to come and a big (and testing) weekend ahead. Within all that, we expect a lot more properties to be coming to market and a possible cooling effect.

More choice at more reasonable prices? We live in hope.

David Morrell

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Bayside: $1 million +

The return of the Damian is nigh. In the meantime…

Beaumaris
79 Cromer Road sold at $1,070,000
4 Powys Drive sold at $1,060,000

Black Rock
13 College Grove sold at $1,310,000

Brighton
2 Byron Street sold at $1,950,000
25 Orchard Street sold at $1,035,0000
44 New Street passed in, vendor bid $1,600,000, reserve $1,770,000

Brighton East
8 Killeen Avenue sold at $1,150,000
19 Melosa Avenue sold at $1,200,000
13 Primrose Crescent sold at $1,070,000
6 Sunlight Crescent sold prior for $1,410,000

Elwood
103 Mitford Street sold at $1,300,000

Hampton
12 Edinburgh Street sold at $1,560,000
83 Linacre Road sold at $1,285,000
50 Service Street sold at $2,200,000

M&K in the news:

Melbourne market loses zing The Australian Financial Review (subscription required) – The total number of properties sold over the weekend in Melbourne was down 43 per cent from the week before. Top-end buyers’ advocate David Morrell said Melbourne’s residential market might have peaked…

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Sept 7: Sense and nonsense

The top end is another country. In some places, it’s another planet.

$722/sq ft in Toorak? Would you like a Brooklyn Bridge with that?

But it happened.

10 Irving Road sold for $3,575,000 ? and it’s on the wrong side of the street.

When this year left harbour, no-one would have expected to see even $600/sq ft.

Hitch a ride down the road to Armadale. Two land-value sales:

(All of which makes a purchase we made not long ago in Toorak ? $300/ft ? look remarkably sound.)

Why is this so? Why the stratospheric numbers?

Lack of choice. This week, for example, with some exceptions in Bayside, there’s nowhere you would want to call home up for auction at the top end.

Off-market? Yes. But at prices intended to make you reel and that we are not advising people to pay. At the top end, fear has left the field and the greed is rampant.

Step down a rung and there’s a little more sense:

  • 4 Armadale Street, Armadale – a 5-bedroom renovated Victorian with a pool on around 6,000 sq ft sold for around where it should have: $2,370,000
  • 670 Orrong Road was rightly rejected. Passed in at $2,600,000 on a vendor bid with a reserve of $2,750,000. What they don?t tell you in the results is that it was sold only 12 months ago for just over $2,000,000. Get real, people.

And then there’s Albert Park. Cinderella looking for a lift home from the ball only four months ago, now even a 4-room weatherboard at 28 Brooke Street sells for $1,330,000. Bring out the fairy dust.

State of the investment world? Changes with the wind (and we’ve had a bit of that lately). Few investors to be found toward the top of the ladder, more active below $1 million where there’s now a fair choice in units.

There. First week in September and we haven’t mentioned footy. How disciplined is that?

David Morrell

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Bayside: $1 million +

Damian is still elsewhere. Here’s another taste of what he is missing:

Bentleigh

Brighton

Brighton East

Elwood

  • 15 Selwyn Avenue passed in on a vendor bid of $1,600,000, reserve is $1,695,000 – later sold, price undisclosed
  • 109 Ruskin Street sold prior to auction for $1,800,000

Sandringham

M&K in the news:

Rumours of rate rise do nothing to dampen demand – The Age – Slightly further east, buyers’ advocate David Morrell saw strong demand at the auction of a large, modern, double-storey house at 52 Lansdowne Road…

Auction rate off at a run – The Australian Financial Review – The traditional spring auction season is off to a strong start, but agents say supply constraints are curtailing the Sydney and Melbourne markets (subscription required).

Editorial

It is time to end some of the great uncertainties in real estate. There’s a simple way to end underquoting and over-quoting. More here.

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